Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5263…ad57 other 84 markets active 6h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-4%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%38W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$93
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$34
sports 26% +$32
crypto 6% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -17.6% -25.4% 43% 34% -15.2%
≤30d 84 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 36% -14.6%
≤90d 84 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 36% -14.6%
all 84 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 36% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 36% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 25% -22.7%
15% -36.4% 14% -30.2%
20% -42.7% 12% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses38 / 46
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage8d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$4 +203%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $66 −$48 -73%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -16%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 +$2 +78%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $53 +$20 +37%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $64 −$22 -34%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $58 +$6 +10%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -58%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -29%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -12%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$3 -32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 +$6 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -92%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$5 -8%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 +$11 +23%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -31%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$2 -28%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$7 +17%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $139 +$16 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $23 +$5 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 $0 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 +$9 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$11 -38%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$8 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 9h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $4 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 89¢ $66 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 10h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $72 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 13h
Australia to win the second half? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 14h
United States to win the second half? SELL Yes 37¢ $43 14h
United States to win the second half? BUY Yes 54¢ $64 15h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $66 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 33h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records