Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5266…aac8 sports 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$33 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%104W / 138L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,173
7 days−$181
14 days−$3,260
30 days−$3,367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$431
crypto 5% $0
other 3% −$164
weather 2% −$16
world 1% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 56% -11.3%
≤30d 176 -42.0% -47.5% 31% 30% -29.9%
≤90d 187 -39.9% -45.6% 34% 30% -27.5%
all 242 -9.3% -17.9% 43% 39% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 39% -12.4%
10% -25.8% 36% -20.7%
15% -33.0% 29% -28.4%
20% -39.5% 25% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$49 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses104 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions3
Markets (closed)242 / 245
History coverage175d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $404 $399 −$5 (-1%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 29¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-31%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $268 −$268 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $148 −$96 -64%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $109 −$82 -75%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $178 +$44 +25%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $133 −$106 -80%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $64 −$30 -46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $142 +$58 +41%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $80 +$20 +25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $174 +$126 +72%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $229 −$229 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $956 −$434 -45%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 +$98 +96%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $960 +$39 +4%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $74 +$26 +35%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $243 +$157 +64%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $142 +$58 +41%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$37 -75%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $180 −$180 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $47 +$15 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $161 +$86 +53%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $59 +$41 +69%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $55 +$45 +82%
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $263 −$23 -9%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $188 +$112 +59%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $212 +$87 +41%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $134 −$87 -65%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $52 +$47 +90%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $65 +$35 +54%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $250 +$139 +56%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $137 −$136 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $174 +$125 +72%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $189 −$113 -60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $183 +$117 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $125 +$75 +60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $247 +$157 +63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $158 +$42 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $233 +$67 +29%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $60 −$34 -56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $60 −$9 -15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $107 −$72 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $68 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $68 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $68 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $68 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $53 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $54 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $53 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $27 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $16 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $29 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $55 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $213 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $83 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $37 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 23¢ $22 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 14¢ $27 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 35¢ $34 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $56 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $7 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $59 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $8 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $48 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $40 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.09 · official $412.09 (match) · 900 history records