Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5268…2468
other · 14 markets active 2h ago
5.5score
+$281 +52%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$245 · open +$36
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$321
Realized+$245
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage19d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 7 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$63
14 days+$162
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 86¢ $116 $150 +$35 (+30%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $39 +$38 +98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $55 +$132 +242%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $78 +$83 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% +$45
politics 35% +$149
sports 15% +$83
crypto 6% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 30h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 47h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 11d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 99¢ $1 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 99¢ $186 12d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 39¢ $24 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 14d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 28¢ $7 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 67¢ $17 16d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 13¢ $4 16d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY Yes 13¢ $13 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 28¢ $22 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 67¢ $35 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 28¢ $26 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 66¢ $26 18d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 66¢ $38 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +110.0% +90.0% 100% 100% +62.4%
≤30d 7 +68.4% +52.4% 71% 71% +81.3%
≤90d 7 +68.4% +52.4% 71% 71% +81.3%
all 7 +68.4% +52.4% 71% 71% +81.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.4% 71% +81.3%
10% +37.8% 71% +63.9%
15% +24.5% 71% +48.1%
20% +12.3% 57% +33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.35 · official $321.35 (match) · 31 history records