Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x526b…5269 sports 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$903 (-13%) realized −$903 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%25W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$356
7 days−$912
14 days−$1,089
30 days−$1,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$965
other 4% −$159
world 1% +$48
crypto 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -39.7% -45.5% 20% 18% -42.8%
≤30d 92 -23.3% -30.6% 27% 24% -23.4%
≤90d 92 -23.3% -30.6% 27% 24% -23.4%
all 92 -23.3% -30.6% 27% 24% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 24% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 24% -30.7%
15% -43.3% 22% -37.4%
20% -48.8% 21% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$54 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$903
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses25 / 67
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage12d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 53¢ 54¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 19 $138 −$16 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -13%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$2 -8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $191 −$190 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 17 $199 −$8 -4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $99 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $116 +$3 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $198 −$198 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $115 +$146 +126%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$72 +234%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$50 +99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15 Jun 16 $0 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $71 +$87 +123%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $127 −$31 -24%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $116 +$51 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $117 −$80 -69%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$5 -19%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $17 −$9 -53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $96 −$96 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $231 −$231 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $59 −$5 -8%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 12 $96 −$8 -9%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $69 −$11 -15%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $27 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 53¢ $49 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 20¢ $19 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 20¢ $26 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $25 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 60¢ $25 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 21h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 11¢ $11 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 14¢ $6 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 85¢ $96 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $62 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 44h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 44h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 44h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 44h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 46h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 0¢ $1 46h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $191 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $191 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 38¢ $94 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $95 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.48 · official $48.48 (match) · 325 history records