Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x526d…0958 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$12
politics 24% −$8
sports 12% −$48
tech 7% −$2
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 129 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 7% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 4% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 4% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×4.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage131d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $262 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $257 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $178 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $206 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $170 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $164 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $171 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $417 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $177 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $373 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $340 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $163 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 18h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 18h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 35h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 44h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $32 9d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 9d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $36 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 12d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 12d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $38 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 385 history records