Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
52 0x526e…3bd0 politics 456 markets active 2h ago coverage 948d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,122 (-2%) realized −$4,020 · open −$102
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%216W / 233L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3,689now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$553
14 days−$703
30 days−$715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% +$1,394
crypto 33% −$4,546
world 14% +$753
other 8% −$1,945
finance 0% +$352
economics 0% −$45
tech 0% −$147
sports 0% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.3% -26.1% 57% 57% -39.7%
≤30d 23 +69.5% +53.3% 52% 43% -26.7%
≤90d 85 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 31% -29.4%
all 449 -2.1% -11.4% 48% 36% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 36% -11.6%
10% -19.9% 25% -20.1%
15% -27.7% 17% -27.8%
20% -34.7% 11% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$147 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

948d coverage
Net worth$3,689
Realized−$4,020
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses216 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)449 / 456
History coverage948d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 449 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 44¢ $2,400 $2,412 +$12 (+1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $621 $612 −$10 (-2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $491 $489 −$3 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes 73¢ 36¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 64¢ $44 $1 −$43 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 19 $670 −$45 -7%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $61 +$9 +14%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 16 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 15 $194 +$64 +33%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 14 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 13 $116 +$19 +16%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 11 $141 −$138 -98%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $823 −$53 -6%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 08 $144 +$44 +31%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 06 $22 −$8 -34%
Will Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governo Jun 03 $11 +$10 +88%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 02 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá? Jun 01 $251 +$11 +4%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 01 $50 −$50 -99%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $103 +$12 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 30 $89 +$16 +18%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 27 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $118 +$30 +25%
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 24 $382 +$10 +3%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? May 23 $3 $0 -9%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats May 21 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? May 20 $168 −$166 -98%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 16 $234 +$14 +6%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $45 +$13 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? May 13 $51 −$6 -11%
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? May 12 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 12 $159 −$7 -4%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 11 $210 −$9 -4%
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in th May 08 $151 −$150 -99%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 08 $201 +$21 +10%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in May 08 $85 +$55 +64%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in May 08 $829 +$354 +43%
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections May 08 $98 −$95 -97%
Will Kanye tweet again by May 31? May 07 $128 +$44 +34%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 06 $33 +$5 +14%
Will the Conservative Party win at least 300 council seat elections in May 05 $1,213 +$50 +4%
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec May 04 $49 +$24 +50%
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives May 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will AD+PD win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in May 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? May 02 $80 −$21 -26%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 30 $731 −$67 -9%
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30? Apr 29 $16 +$10 +63%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less tha Apr 22 $52 +$9 +18%
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2 Apr 21 $36 +$17 +46%
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Apr 20 $196 +$23 +12%
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Apr 15 $147 −$9 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $29 1h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 34h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $624 34h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 75¢ $624 34h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $69 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 88¢ $69 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $2,400 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $494 3d
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY No 71¢ $506 3d
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? SELL Yes 80¢ $7 4d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 5d
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 64¢ $42 5d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $16 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 76¢ $61 6d
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 6d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima SELL Yes 95¢ $135 6d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 79¢ $624 7d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 79¢ $45 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $1,246 7d
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect BUY Yes 60¢ $141 8d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $141 8d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY Yes 51¢ $2 11d
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? SELL Yes 99¢ $188 11d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima SELL Yes 42¢ $15 14d
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? BUY Yes 75¢ $144 15d
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 16d
Will Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governo SELL No 99¢ $7 16d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 16d
Will Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governo SELL No 99¢ $5 16d
Will Toby Doeden and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governo SELL No 99¢ $9 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,689.49 · official $3,689.49 (match) · 1481 history records