Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x526e…7c43 sports 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,681 (-10%) realized −$4,114 · open −$567
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate87%193W / 29L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$958
14 days+$986
30 days−$656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$405
world 40% −$2,733
politics 15% −$1,685
finance 4% +$165
tech 0% −$124
other 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +12.9% +2.1% 97% 14% +24.6%
≤30d 181 -0.8% -10.2% 93% 5% -12.0%
≤90d 222 -4.4% -13.5% 87% 9% -18.0%
all 222 -4.4% -13.5% 87% 9% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 9% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 6% -25.9%
15% -29.4% 5% -33.0%
20% -36.3% 4% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$197 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$4,809
Realized−$4,114
Unrealized−$567
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses193 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions14
Markets (closed)222 / 236
History coverage56d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 52¢ 99¢ $1,440 $2,734 +$1,294 (+90%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $674 $510 −$164 (-24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $1,115 $420 −$695 (-62%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $368 $356 −$12 (-3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $113 $252 +$139 (+123%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $124 $130 +$6 (+5%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 99¢ 90¢ $97 $89 −$8 (-9%)
StarCraft II: Classic vs Zoun - Map 4 Winner Classic 99¢ 90¢ $97 $88 −$9 (-9%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
StarCraft II: Classic vs Zoun - Map 2 Winner Classic 99¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Map Handicap: Classic (-2.5) vs Zoun (+2.5) Zoun 99¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Map Handicap: Classic (-1.5) vs Zoun (+1.5) Zoun 99¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $424 $6 −$418 (-99%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $701 $1 −$700 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: herO (-2.5) vs MaxPax (+2.5) Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: herO (-1.5) vs MaxPax (+1.5) Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: herO vs MaxPax (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: herO vs MaxPax - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: herO vs MaxPax - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $55 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: herO vs MaxPax - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $32 +$1 +2%
StarCraft II: Cure vs SKillous (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
StarCraft II: Solar vs Zoun (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs Jun 18 $9 +$17 +184%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $21 +$11 +54%
StarCraft II: herO vs ByuN - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
StarCraft II: MaxPax vs SHIN (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs Jun 18 $36 +$4 +10%
StarCraft II: ByuN vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage 2 Jun 16 $60 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: Solar (-1.5) vs ByuN (+1.5) Jun 16 $44 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: ByuN vs Solar - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $65 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: ByuN vs Solar - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs Solar - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: Rogue (-1.5) vs Solar (+1.5) Jun 16 $63 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage Jun 16 $83 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs Solar - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: ByuN (-1.5) vs trigger (+1.5) Jun 16 $65 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: ByuN vs trigger - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $62 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: Rogue (-1.5) vs ByuN (+1.5) Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs ByuN - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs ByuN - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $171 +$11 +6%
Map Handicap: Rogue (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs Gerald (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage Jun 16 $64 +$1 +2%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs Gerald - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs trigger (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Sta Jun 16 $78 +$32 +41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $62 +$2 +3%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs trigger - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $107 +$2 +2%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs trigger - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $421 +$728 +173%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $198 +$150 +76%
StarCraft II: Percival vs Zoun (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stag Jun 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Map Handicap: Zoun (-1.5) vs Percival (+1.5) Jun 09 $69 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $69 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Percival vs Zoun - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $69 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Percival vs Zoun - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $69 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Percival vs SHIN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $33 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: SHIN (-1.5) vs Percival (+1.5) Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $134 +$2 +1%
StarCraft II: Percival vs SHIN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: Lambo (-1.5) vs Percival (+1.5) Jun 09 $362 +$10 +3%
StarCraft II: Lambo vs Percival - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $345 +$10 +3%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs ByuN (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage Jun 04 $79 +$1 +1%
Map Handicap: ByuN (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) Jun 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $97 1h
StarCraft II: Classic vs Zoun - Map 4 Winner BUY Classic 99¢ $97 1h
Map Handicap: Classic (-1.5) vs Zoun (+1.5) BUY Zoun 99¢ $55 1h
StarCraft II: Classic vs Zoun - Map 2 Winner BUY Classic 99¢ $55 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $55 1h
Map Handicap: Classic (-2.5) vs Zoun (+2.5) BUY Zoun 99¢ $55 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $52 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 21h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $55 21h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $55 21h
StarCraft II: herO vs MaxPax (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs BUY MaxPax 99¢ $55 21h
StarCraft II: herO vs MaxPax - Map 3 Winner BUY MaxPax 99¢ $55 21h
Map Handicap: herO (-1.5) vs MaxPax (+1.5) BUY MaxPax 99¢ $55 22h
StarCraft II: herO vs MaxPax - Map 2 Winner BUY MaxPax 99¢ $55 22h
StarCraft II: herO vs MaxPax - Map 1 Winner BUY MaxPax 98¢ $32 22h
Map Handicap: herO (-2.5) vs MaxPax (+2.5) BUY MaxPax 99¢ $55 22h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $47 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,809.06 · official $4,809.06 (match) · 2156 history records