Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x526e…2f84 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-4%) realized −$61 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$180
other 41% −$50
crypto 4% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -30.9% -37.5% 42% 42% -19.5%
≤30d 26 -30.9% -37.5% 42% 42% -19.5%
≤90d 26 -30.9% -37.5% 42% 42% -19.5%
all 26 -30.9% -37.5% 42% 42% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 42% -19.5%
10% -43.5% 42% -27.2%
15% -48.9% 35% -34.2%
20% -53.9% 27% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$47 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$61
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $49 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $45 −$45 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$53 +105%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $49 +$33 +67%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $73 +$35 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $74 +$52 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $59 −$58 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $99 +$108 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$44 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $150 +$72 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $115 +$35 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $49 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $45 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $20 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $20 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $49 25h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $84 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $73 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $74 36h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $59 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $5 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $99 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $101 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $15 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $195 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $151 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $150 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $115 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.47 · official $47.47 (match) · 46 history records