trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $12 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 12 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $9 | +$1 | +13% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Dec 24 | $27 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Dec 17 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 14 | $4 | +$1 | +12% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Sep 27 | $28 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 27 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump be impeached in 2025? | Sep 25 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Sep 24 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th | Sep 24 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 12 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 02 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Sep 02 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | Aug 29 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 29 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Aug 28 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 28 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? | Aug 28 | $2 | −$1 | -31% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 28 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? | Aug 28 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Aug 28 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Aug 28 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will John Finucane win the Irish Presidential Election? | Aug 27 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Aug 27 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 33% | 17% | -8.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 33% | 17% | -8.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 33% | 17% | -8.0% |
| all | 28 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 46% | 7% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.3% | 7% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -18.0% | 0% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -32.9% |