Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5270…0cef crypto 676 markets active 21h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$183 (-1%) realized −$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%324W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$184
14 days−$184
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$453
politics 0% +$12
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -24.8% -31.9% 50% 39% -19.9%
≤30d 119 -24.8% -31.9% 50% 39% -19.9%
≤90d 119 -24.8% -31.9% 50% 39% -19.9%
all 676 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 39% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 39% -11.9%
10% -22.7% 31% -20.3%
15% -30.2% 24% -28.0%
20% -37.0% 18% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses324 / 352
Open positions0
Markets (closed)676 / 676
History coverage145d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 676 Trades
no open positions (103 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $18 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $28 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $32 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2035 history records