Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5270…715d world 38 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$139 (-12%) realized −$134 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$100
14 days−$116
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% −$124
other 5% −$16
politics 1% −$5
crypto 1% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -8.5% -17.2% 38% 38% -26.8%
≤30d 37 -12.0% -20.4% 46% 35% -20.8%
≤90d 37 -12.0% -20.4% 46% 35% -20.8%
all 37 -12.0% -20.4% 46% 35% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 35% -20.8%
10% -28.0% 8% -28.4%
15% -34.9% 5% -35.3%
20% -41.3% 5% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage22d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 11¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $77 −$9 -12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $326 −$71 -22%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $100 −$7 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $75 −$20 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$9 -47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $142 −$10 -7%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $44 +$11 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $63 +$34 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -45%
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$4 -29%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 07 $5 +$1 +19%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +11%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 01 $5 +$1 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 30 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $4 $0 +3%
Will George Pickens play for Cleveland Browns in 2026-27? May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $9 +$1 +11%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e May 28 $7 −$1 -20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $3 $0 +5%
Will George Pickens play for Indianapolis Colts in 2026-27? May 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? May 27 $10 −$1 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $45 −$14 -30%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $11 −$3 -31%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $10 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 40¢ $13 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 30¢ $10 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 75¢ $83 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 72¢ $80 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 45¢ $64 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 37¢ $69 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.82 · official $4.84 (match) · 143 history records