Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5271…bec4 crypto 1008 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (310 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,287 (-8%) realized −$1,287 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate70%871W / 370L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day310.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$454
other 7% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (310 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1124 -21.3% -28.8% 69% 50% -39.6%
≤30d 1241 -19.8% -27.4% 70% 52% -36.4%
≤90d 1241 -19.8% -27.4% 70% 52% -36.4%
all 1241 -19.8% -27.4% 70% 52% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover310.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 52% -36.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 0% -42.5%
15% -40.7% 0% -48.1%
20% -46.5% 0% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$23 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses871 / 370
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1241 / 1008
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day310.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1241 Trades
no open positions (344 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$33 -106%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $33 −$31 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 7, 9PM ET? Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$6 -58%
BNB Up or Down - May 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$12 -335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $24 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $17 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $0.22 (match) · 3500 history records