Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5278…5410 world 44 markets active 2d ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$1
other 32% $0
politics 20% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 44 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage322d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $43 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $35 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 31 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will three people dissent the Fed decision? Jul 30 $25 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $67 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $57 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 29 $9 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1? Jul 29 $65 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in July? Jul 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $65 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $48 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $48 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $38 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $5 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $43 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $47 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $41 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $22 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $12 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $9 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $36 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records