Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5278…3ca2
politics · 66 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$13 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses8 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage266d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 0 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $88 $0 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? Mar 10 $91 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $93 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $1 $0 -15%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $3 $0 -10%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $2 $0 -26%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $91 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $92 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $183 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $191 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 09 $2 $0 -10%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 08 $88 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 04 $173 −$1 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 03 $95 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $100 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $1 $0 -20%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $91 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $91 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $95 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $196 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 27 $193 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $95 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $94 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 19 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 56% −$6
sports 16% −$1
other 12% −$4
culture 6% −$1
crypto 3% +$1
world 3% $0
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 58m
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 58m
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $88 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 12d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $91 97d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 105d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 105d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 108d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 108d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 110d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 113d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $89 115d
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $89 120d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 121d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 133d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 134d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 135d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 135d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 136d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 136d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 136d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $87 137d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 137d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 138d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 138d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -25.4% -32.5% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 3 -17.0% -24.9% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 3 -17.0% -24.9% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 66 -7.2% -16.1% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 275 history records