Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x5279…a3ea other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+6%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$44
world 22% $0
politics 14% +$1
crypto 11% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 75% 0% -9.3%
all 39 +9.0% -1.4% 38% 3% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 3% -3.6%
10% -10.8% 3% -12.9%
15% -19.4% 3% -21.3%
20% -27.3% 3% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×25.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×41.81 per $1 lost it wins $41.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage453d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 11 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Belinda Bencic win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will FlyQuest win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $6 $0 -2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 10 $3 $0 +8%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $13 +$44 +340%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 29 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 32m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $29 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $10 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $39 10h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $39 26d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $39 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $11 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $28 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $31 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $7 31d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $53 346d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 97¢ $6 346d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 97¢ $6 347d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $6 347d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $6 347d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 347d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 347d
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 347d
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $5 348d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $6 348d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $6 348d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? SELL No 99¢ $5 348d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 98¢ $5 348d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 97¢ $6 348d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 97¢ $6 348d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 96¢ $6 349d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 96¢ $6 349d
Will Belinda Bencic win Wimbledon 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 349d
Will Belinda Bencic win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 349d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records