Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
52 0x527b…637e crypto 1501 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,052 (+10%) realized +$3,052 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate80%1202W / 298L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days+$1
14 days+$472
30 days+$902
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,618
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +3.5% -6.4% 76% 59% -9.5%
≤30d 262 +9.0% -1.4% 84% 61% -1.6%
≤90d 797 +10.3% -0.2% 83% 59% -0.5%
all 1500 +11.3% +0.7% 80% 57% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 57% -2.0%
10% -8.9% 40% -11.4%
15% -17.7% 28% -19.9%
20% -25.8% 19% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$3,052
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1202 / 298
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1500 / 1501
History coverage118d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1500 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$7 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$41 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$9 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$32 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$17 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$9 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$9 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$40 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$5 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$5 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$21 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$41 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$34 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$26 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$65 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $35 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $41 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $41 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $42 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $29 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $41 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $41 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $41 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $42 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $40 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $42 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $41 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $41 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $41 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $42 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $41 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $41 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $41 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $41 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $41 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.37 · official $55.56 (match) · 3197 history records