Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5282…82fc sports 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,831 (-17%) realized −$3,986 · open +$155
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%89W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$252
7 days+$635
14 days+$635
30 days+$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$664
other 36% −$2,510
crypto 9% +$120
politics 3% −$271
finance 0% −$100
world 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +112.0% +91.8% 70% 70% +48.9%
≤30d 25 +33.1% +20.4% 48% 48% +13.5%
≤90d 178 -14.9% -23.0% 33% 33% -25.0%
all 246 -8.9% -17.5% 36% 36% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 36% -23.6%
10% -25.4% 36% -30.9%
15% -32.6% 36% -37.6%
20% -39.2% 34% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$82 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized−$3,986
Unrealized+$155
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses89 / 157
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions3
Markets (closed)246 / 250
History coverage113d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 75¢ $195 $375 +$180 (+92%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $206 $201 −$6 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $109 $90 −$19 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $231 +$162 +70%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $92 −$90 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $161 +$138 +86%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $109 −$108 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $103 +$96 +93%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$53 +104%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $31 +$219 +711%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Sc Jun 17 $90 +$190 +211%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $37 +$53 +145%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $94 −$92 -98%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $54 −$54 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $131 −$129 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $104 −$102 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $75 +$84 +112%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 02 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 02 $99 +$198 +200%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 02 $49 −$48 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $67 −$66 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5 Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $55 +$80 +145%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 02 $56 −$56 -100%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $72 +$126 +175%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $113 +$85 +75%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $104 −$103 -99%
World Championships: Denmark vs. Sweden May 17 $45 −$44 -97%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 May 17 $101 −$100 -98%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) May 17 $70 +$78 +111%
Bruno Fernandes: Anytime Goalscorer May 17 $69 −$68 -98%
World Championships: Great Britain vs. USA May 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Zagreb: Elmer Moeller vs Zsombor Piros May 17 $61 −$60 -98%
San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5 May 17 $51 +$147 +287%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $152 +$126 +83%
Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $236 −$229 -97%
Will Denmark win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $60 −$54 -90%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1,168 −$353 -30%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $162 +$138 +85%
Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 14 $100 +$78 +78%
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $78 −$75 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Bordeaux: Benjamin Bonzi vs Tallon Griekspoor May 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Jannik Sinner vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Silva vs. Moeller: Match O/U 21.5 May 14 $120 +$80 +66%
Zagreb: Yannick Alexandrescou vs August Holmgren May 14 $188 −$186 -99%
ITF Bucharest: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas May 14 $76 −$75 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 May 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 14 $63 +$52 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $199 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $393 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $231 4h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 30¢ $92 5h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 5h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $161 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 30¢ $61 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $109 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $200 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $103 31h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 48¢ $51 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $212 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Sc SELL 95¢ $281 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Sc BUY 30¢ $90 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $37 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $32 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $146 5d
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $94 17d
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 27¢ $54 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 49¢ $131 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Sorana Cirstea 34¢ $104 17d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Colorado Rockies 99¢ $158 17d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Colorado Rockies 46¢ $75 17d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 31¢ $32 17d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 99¢ $99 17d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 99¢ $198 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.71 · official $665.71 (match) · 751 history records