Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5283…b53c sports 414 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$237 (-1%) realized −$90 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%215W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$280est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$282
7 days−$376
14 days−$1,386
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$566
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -35.2% -41.3% 33% 30% -34.4%
≤30d 262 -12.5% -20.9% 47% 44% -13.8%
≤90d 412 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 46% -11.9%
all 412 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 46% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 46% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 37% -20.4%
15% -30.8% 30% -28.1%
20% -37.6% 21% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses215 / 197
Est. fees paid−$280
Open positions2
Markets (closed)412 / 414
History coverage51d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 31¢ 0¢ $121 $0 −$121 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 23¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $51 +$1 +1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $57 +$25 +43%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $30 +$9 +30%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$47 +92%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $66 +$57 +87%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$43 -85%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$74 +290%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$19 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $71 +$30 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $57 +$42 +74%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $24 +$19 +78%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 +$37 +52%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $10 +$24 +238%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $67 +$30 +45%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $82 +$17 +20%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $22 +$86 +387%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $71 +$31 +44%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $67 +$13 +20%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$13 -65%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Filippo Romano Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire Jun 07 $87 +$7 +8%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $79 +$17 +22%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Katie Volynets 56¢ $51 35m
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 54¢ $51 41m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $82 50m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $57 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 15¢ $21 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 26¢ $12 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 24¢ $26 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $65 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $152 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 23¢ $27 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $31 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 48¢ $24 3h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 3¢ $3 22h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 20¢ $20 22h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk SELL Darja Vidmanova 98¢ $39 23h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk BUY Darja Vidmanova 75¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 41¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 36¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $98 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 51¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 11¢ $5 3d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 30¢ $5 3d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 50¢ $30 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $123 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 44¢ $10 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 54¢ $56 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports 6¢ $8 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $51 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 21¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 1264 history records