Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x528a…4728 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-5%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$37
crypto 39% −$24
sports 15% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +424.8% +374.8% 100% 100% +374.8%
≤30d 37 -9.2% -17.8% 41% 35% -9.8%
≤90d 37 -9.2% -17.8% 41% 35% -9.8%
all 37 -9.2% -17.8% 41% 35% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 35% -9.8%
10% -25.7% 27% -18.5%
15% -32.9% 19% -26.3%
20% -39.5% 16% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage14d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 28 $7 +$28 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$7 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$11 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$4 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$6 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$20 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +249%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $35 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 19¢ $7 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 4¢ $7 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 5¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 10d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 10d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 45¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 10d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $10 10d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $10 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $6 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.68 · official $34.68 (match) · 84 history records