Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:29:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x528a…12f1
sports · 105 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$699 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$744 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$744
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses38 / 65
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage72d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$116
14 days−$125
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 19¢ 18¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 49¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+102%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Playoffs Wildcard Gaming 46¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega FURIA Esports 50¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 47¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs FaZe Clan (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Salt Lake City Playoffs Falcons Esport 46¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Gen.G 20¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs DRX 38¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks New York Mets 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Stage 2 Dragon Ranger Gaming 52¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs T1 48¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers Arizona Diamondbacks 46¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner ReThink 47¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner DRX 56¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 28¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 41¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 40¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Aurora Gaming 44¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Vitality 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs MIBR 51¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Nongshim Red Force 38¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 20¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $37 −$36 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $60 +$73 +122%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $83 +$63 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $56 −$55 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $97 +$127 +131%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $37 −$36 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $43 +$28 +65%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $32 −$31 -98%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$29 +208%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $50 −$21 -41%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $26 +$47 +180%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $38 +$18 +46%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $19 +$19 +105%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $14 +$10 +74%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 22 $60 −$59 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $15 +$23 +152%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 16 $20 −$15 -78%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cu May 16 $45 −$39 -87%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $44 −$39 -89%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $35 +$50 +143%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) May 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) May 16 $89 −$84 -95%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 16 $30 −$2 -6%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 16 $61 −$51 -83%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winner May 16 $30 +$27 +89%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $69 +$105 +152%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R May 15 $33 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 15 $27 +$46 +172%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs FaZe Clan (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major May 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Valorant: MIBR vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playof May 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner May 15 $31 +$43 +142%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $59 +$51 +88%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $51 −$51 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 15 $10 +$14 +143%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 May 15 $16 +$12 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 14 $34 −$34 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% −$762
other 2% −$26
tech 2% +$43
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $18 33m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $4 33m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $4 33m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $6 33m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $3 33m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $0 49m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $0 49m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $0 49m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $27 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY FURIA 33¢ $37 14h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $8 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $38 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $61 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $33 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $132 25h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $10 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $50 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $10 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $10 27h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $20 28h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $36 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 21¢ $20 28h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 100¢ $146 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $83 31h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $56 35h
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 100¢ $187 46h
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 41% -20.6%
≤30d 51 -13.5% -21.7% 37% 37% -24.1%
≤90d 103 -16.5% -24.5% 37% 36% -28.5%
all 103 -16.5% -24.5% 37% 36% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 36% -28.5%
10% -31.7% 35% -35.3%
15% -38.3% 35% -41.6%
20% -44.3% 34% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.42 · official $33.30 (match) · 202 history records