Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
52 0x528e…e9c4 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 358d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$88 (+5%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$18
14 days−$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$52
culture 40% +$79
sports 2% −$21
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +131.2% +109.2% 69% 69% -8.6%
≤30d 27 +73.5% +57.0% 63% 63% -13.5%
≤90d 27 +73.5% +57.0% 63% 63% -13.5%
all 51 +26.9% +14.8% 47% 45% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.8% 45% -4.9%
10% +3.8% 37% -14.0%
15% -6.2% 27% -22.3%
20% -15.4% 22% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage358d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $34 +$22 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 +$5 +67%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$6 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 +$4 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 −$33 -47%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 +$4 +12%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $7 +$2 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$7 +34%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 07 $25 +$17 +68%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $126 +$42 +33%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $10 −$1 -13%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Oct 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Oct 24 $11 −$7 -61%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 19 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 19 $10 +$14 +142%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Oct 06 $9 $0 +4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 05 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 07 $406 +$51 +13%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix? Sep 07 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 03 $186 −$163 -87%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 03 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 03 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 03 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 27 $517 +$234 +45%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 27 $7 −$1 -20%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 27 $27 −$7 -25%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 27 $4 −$3 -80%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 23 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? Jul 11 $9 $0 -5%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $14 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.63 · official $7.18 (match) · 133 history records