Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x528f…7795 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+5%) realized +$186 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%29W / 22L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day54.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$42
other 6% +$76
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -2.7% -12.0% 57% 57% -6.2%
≤30d 51 -2.7% -12.0% 57% 57% -6.2%
≤90d 51 -2.7% -12.0% 57% 57% -6.2%
all 51 -2.7% -12.0% 57% 57% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 57% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 51% -15.2%
15% -28.1% 45% -23.4%
20% -35.1% 29% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$36 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$186
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses29 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day54.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? No 1¢ 0¢ $60 $3 −$57 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$40 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$30 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$8 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$64 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $70 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $73 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $11 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.87 · official $2.87 (match) · 93 history records