Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5292…e26d other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$3
politics 17% −$3
world 12% $0
economics 11% −$1
sports 11% −$11
tech 10% $0
culture 6% −$1
finance 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +0.5% -9.0% 32% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 23 +1.8% -7.9% 35% 4% -9.1%
all 48 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 35
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage227d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 97¢ $160 $160 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 24 $160 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $155 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 05 $155 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 04 $158 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $153 +$10 +6%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $120 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $120 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 03 $120 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 03 $121 $0 +0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $121 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $147 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $150 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $120 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 26 $120 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $49 $0 +0%
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31? Apr 01 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on December 15? Jan 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of December? Dec 14 $50 $0 -0%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$12B one day after launch? Dec 14 $5 $0 +2%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Dec 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 27 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 November 24-30? Nov 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $105 $0 -0%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 27 $105 $0 -0%
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Nov 24 $133 $0 -0%
AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025? Nov 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? Nov 24 $134 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 19? Nov 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Nov 19 $134 $0 -0%
Will Mario Rivera Callejas win the 2025 Honduras presidential election Nov 19 $136 −$1 -0%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 19? Nov 19 $138 $0 -0%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 19 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election? Nov 12 $130 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $156 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 11 $151 $0 -0%
Will the government shutdown end November 15? Nov 11 $150 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 11 $155 $0 -0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $160 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 98¢ $160 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $160 30h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $1 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $56 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $10 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $52 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $3 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $10 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $6 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $19 10d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $155 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 99¢ $155 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 99¢ $0 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $155 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 97¢ $158 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 97¢ $158 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $155 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $155 20d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 53¢ $40 20d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 97¢ $119 20d
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? BUY Yes 97¢ $119 20d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $120 20d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $120 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $95 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $53 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $0 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.02 · official $166.02 (match) · 314 history records