Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5296…6d7b other 390 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-7%) realized +$9 · open −$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%68W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$43
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% −$32
other 22% −$31
crypto 17% +$19
politics 11% −$15
finance 10% −$22
sports 6% −$28
tech 5% −$30
economics 2% −$4
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -16.0% -24.0% 33% 23% -14.9%
≤30d 179 -10.6% -19.1% 31% 23% -8.0%
≤90d 249 -15.2% -23.3% 27% 21% -13.1%
all 249 -15.2% -23.3% 27% 21% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 21% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 18% -21.4%
15% -37.3% 14% -29.0%
20% -43.5% 12% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses68 / 181
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions141
Markets (closed)249 / 390
History coverage46d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 141 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+86%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 39¢ 48¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+23%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 10¢ 28¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+175%)
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Ledger IPO before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? No 8¢ 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+44%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+112%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 31¢ 94¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+205%)
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Canva IPO before 2027? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? No 26¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Celonis IPO before 2027? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 16¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+36%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+29%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 21¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+40%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No 35¢ 41¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $2 $0 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Waymo IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Stripe IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Deel IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -45%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -52%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -43%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +202%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $12 +$4 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +49%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 −$1 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -10%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $2 −$1 -72%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -30%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 13 $1 $0 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -24%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $24 +$2 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $12 +$7 +62%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $3 $0 -11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $2 49m
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 21¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 21¢ $1 2h
ByteDance IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 21¢ $8 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $3 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL No 2¢ $0 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 21¢ $5 6h
ByteDance IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 34¢ $2 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 12¢ $0 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 12¢ $5 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $2 11h
Waymo IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 12h
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 12¢ $1 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $2 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 15h
Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $0 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 18h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 13¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.39 · official $213.38 (match) · 1393 history records