Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5297…68e5 crypto 551 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,254 (+8%) realized +$1,254 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%204W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$376
7 days+$815
14 days+$1,298
30 days+$1,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$910
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -11.5% -20.0% 38% 33% +0.9%
≤30d 493 -10.4% -19.0% 38% 34% -3.4%
≤90d 551 -13.1% -21.4% 37% 34% -4.2%
all 551 -13.1% -21.4% 37% 34% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 34% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 30% -13.4%
15% -35.8% 28% -21.7%
20% -42.1% 24% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$23 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,254
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses204 / 347
Open positions0
Markets (closed)551 / 551
History coverage32d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 551 Trades
no open positions (236 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$7 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $148 +$352 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$40 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +380%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$20 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$626 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $99 −$94 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$14 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$37 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$396 +380%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $64 +$30 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$70 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $63 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1756 history records