trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | Jun 12 | $100 | −$102 | -102% |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? | Jun 12 | $24 | −$182 | -748% |
| Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the | Jun 12 | $0 | +$9 | +8148% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Jun 12 | $341 | +$1,057 | +310% |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $0 | +$1 | +822% |
| Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | Jun 12 | $2,316 | −$2,140 | -92% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jun 12 | $29 | −$34 | -120% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | Jun 12 | $0 | +$37 | +95031% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 12 | $0 | +$6 | +9712% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | Jun 11 | $12 | −$2 | -14% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | Jun 11 | $62 | −$2 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $557 | −$20 | -4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $209 | +$304 | +146% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Jun 11 | $1,608 | +$130 | +8% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 11 | $3,281 | +$628 | +19% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? | Jun 11 | $7,210 | +$212 | +3% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? | Jun 10 | $16 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? | Jun 10 | $5 | −$4 | -84% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 10 | $362 | +$8 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 08 | $7,440 | +$104 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $6,534 | +$847 | +13% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $2,326 | +$53 | +2% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 06 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 25 | +265.0% | +230.3% | 52% | 32% | -6.7% |
| ≤30d | 25 | +265.0% | +230.3% | 52% | 32% | -6.7% |
| ≤90d | 25 | +265.0% | +230.3% | 52% | 32% | -6.7% |
| all | 25 | +265.0% | +230.3% | 52% | 32% | -6.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +230.3% | 32% | -6.7% |
| 10% | +198.7% | 24% | -15.6% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +169.8% | 24% | -23.8% |
| 20% | +143.4% | 24% | -31.3% |