trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 50% | 50% | +15.4% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -4.0% | -13.1% | 80% | 20% | -4.7% |
| all | 14 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 86% | 14% | -5.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 14% | -5.0% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 14% | -14.1% |
| 15% | -28.0% | 14% | -22.4% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 14% | -30.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? | Yes | 71¢ | 70¢ | $396 | $393 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? | No | 30¢ | 30¢ | $118 | $116 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $266 | +$258 | +97% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 03 | $146 | −$145 | -99% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 09 | $133 | +$79 | +60% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | May 09 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | May 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? | May 09 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | May 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will March 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? | May 09 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | May 09 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Magic vs. 76ers | Apr 15 | $154 | −$152 | -98% |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Feb 05 | $9 | $0 | +3% |
| Bill Clinton in jail by January 31? | Feb 05 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? | Feb 05 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition | Jan 10 | $18 | $0 | +0% |