Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x529c…210e crypto 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$314 (+4%) realized +$352 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%74W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$406
7 days−$355
14 days−$355
30 days−$356
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$704
other 18% +$777
sports 11% +$201
world 8% −$592
politics 1% −$115
tech 0% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 38% -16.1%
≤30d 88 -10.4% -19.0% 44% 38% -16.1%
≤90d 88 -10.4% -19.0% 44% 38% -16.1%
all 183 +14.9% +3.9% 40% 37% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 37% -13.6%
10% -6.0% 33% -21.9%
15% -15.1% 31% -29.4%
20% -23.4% 29% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$33 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$352
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses74 / 109
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)183 / 185
History coverage137d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 34¢ 50¢ $52 $76 +$24 (+46%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $63 $1 −$62 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$109 +207%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $106 −$101 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $89 −$85 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$80 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$125 +238%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $110 +$94 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$63 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$217 +410%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $116 −$110 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$23 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$42 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$75 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$15 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$44 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$10 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$38 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $113 −$58 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$70 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$53 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$109 +206%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$30 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $63 +$23 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$105 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $130 −$75 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$120 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$40 +384%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $209 −$100 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$25 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $111 −$105 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$21 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$35 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $14 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $30 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $177 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $114 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.89 · official $76.89 (match) · 543 history records