Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
52 0x529d…6381 other 350 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,764 (+6%) realized +$3,300 · open +$464
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate61%192W / 121L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$11,359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$143
14 days+$573
30 days+$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% +$618
other 28% +$1,898
world 26% +$1,198
tech 9% +$1,319
economics 2% −$11
crypto 2% +$24
culture 1% +$20
sports 0% −$92
finance 0% +$21
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +15.9% +4.8% 63% 47% -3.6%
≤30d 50 +8.0% -2.3% 64% 42% -3.9%
≤90d 118 +31.6% +19.0% 68% 37% +0.4%
all 313 +18.5% +7.2% 61% 31% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.2% 31% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -3.0% 22% -10.8%
15% -12.4% 18% -19.5%
20% -21.0% 12% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$26 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$11,359
Realized+$3,300
Unrealized+$464
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses192 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions37
Markets (closed)313 / 350
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$184
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $2,686 $2,745 +$59 (+2%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,910 $1,974 +$64 (+3%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 68¢ 86¢ $1,017 $1,298 +$281 (+28%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 93¢ $477 $516 +$39 (+8%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $424 $433 +$10 (+2%)
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 84¢ $397 $420 +$23 (+6%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $407 $357 −$50 (-12%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $326 $346 +$20 (+6%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $318 $326 +$8 (+3%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $261 $274 +$14 (+5%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 90¢ $196 $268 +$72 (+37%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 78¢ 75¢ $234 $225 −$9 (-4%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 86¢ 95¢ $172 $189 +$17 (+10%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 66¢ 63¢ $198 $189 −$9 (-5%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $140 $170 +$30 (+21%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $166 $169 +$3 (+2%)
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $168 $169 +$1 (+1%)
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $200 $164 −$36 (-18%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $124 $127 +$3 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 25¢ $145 $125 −$20 (-14%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $118 $123 +$5 (+4%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $93 $96 +$3 (+4%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 90¢ 91¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $66 $84 +$18 (+28%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $84 $75 −$8 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$2 +194%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $36 −$12 -32%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $226 −$3 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$2 +12%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 21 $186 +$7 +4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $82 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 20 $170 −$16 -9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $220 −$10 -5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 20 $300 +$78 +26%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $136 +$2 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$9 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $113 −$10 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$7 +21%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 16 $323 +$67 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $210 +$90 +43%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$21 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $103 +$138 +134%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $472 +$128 +27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -99%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $382 +$18 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $88 −$34 -39%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $10 +$29 +280%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 10 $75 +$103 +137%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 09 $120 +$79 +66%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $164 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $439 −$140 -32%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $586 +$152 +26%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 04 $190 +$10 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $298 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 03 $8 −$7 -89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $33 +$17 +52%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $753 −$321 -43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $166 +$34 +20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $379 +$21 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $390 +$10 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $372 +$28 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $141 +$3 +2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $15 −$10 -67%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? May 28 $9 +$3 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $89 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $358 +$48 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $141 49m
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $1 2h
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? SELL No 69¢ $43 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $38 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 9h
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $65 9h
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $7 9h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 11h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $98 11h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 14h
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 14h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 16h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 16h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $16 17h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $17 17h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 17h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $37 17h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $167 18h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $17 18h
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $75 20h
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $82 21h
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $63 29h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 32h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 32h
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,359.43 · official $11,359.48 (match) · 3500 history records