Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52a0…ec9d sports 571 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$883 (+2%) realized +$919 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%263W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$684est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$767now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$1,307
14 days−$262
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$372
other 3% −$347
crypto 0% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 208 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 50% -3.2%
≤30d 416 -1.1% -10.6% 48% 48% -9.2%
≤90d 557 -2.7% -12.0% 47% 47% -9.6%
all 557 -2.7% -12.0% 47% 47% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 47% -9.6%
10% -20.4% 47% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 46% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 44% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$71 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$767
Realized+$919
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses263 / 294
Est. fees paid−$684
Open positions14
Markets (closed)557 / 571
History coverage54d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 557 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 66¢ 68¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Bandecchi (-1.5) vs Kuzmova (+1.5) Kuzmova 56¢ 54¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 50¢ 46¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Katarina Kuzmova 33¢ 34¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ 26¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Paula Badosa 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Katerina Siniakova 35¢ 34¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Yulia Starodubtseva 34¢ 34¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Gerard Campana Lee 26¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Ekaterina Alexandrova 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Denis Shapovalov 23¢ 22¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Hynek Barton 42¢ 36¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 42¢ 34¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 40¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $103 +$106 +103%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $102 +$57 +56%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $102 +$76 +74%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $102 +$72 +71%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $51 +$96 +188%
Set Handicap: Gombos (-1.5) vs Wallin (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $102 +$84 +82%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $51 +$105 +206%
Set Handicap: Henning (-1.5) vs Lee (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Baena (-1.5) vs Damas (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $52 +$103 +199%
Set Handicap: Fery (-1.5) vs Samuel (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $103 +$125 +121%
ITF Gyula: Jeremy Schifris vs John Sperle Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $51 +$110 +216%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $102 +$45 +44%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$81 +80%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $51 +$107 +209%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 16 $102 −$29 -29%
ITF Los Angeles: Jacob Brumm vs Marcel Latak Jun 16 $101 −$13 -13%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $101 −$11 -11%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $101 +$91 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $102 +$59 +58%
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Shinji Hazawa Jun 16 $51 +$51 +100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $154 +$135 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Bandecchi (-1.5) vs Kuzmova (+1.5) BUY Kuzmova 56¢ $101 35m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 33¢ $51 35m
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 26¢ $51 55m
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 34¢ $51 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 21¢ $51 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 35¢ $51 1h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 23¢ $51 2h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 25¢ $51 2h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 66¢ $101 2h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 26¢ $51 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $102 11h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $102 11h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $102 13h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 42¢ $51 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 13h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton BUY Hynek Barton 42¢ $51 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $102 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $103 14h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 48¢ $103 15h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 50¢ $103 15h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $102 16h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 57¢ $101 22h
Set Handicap: Fery (-1.5) vs Samuel (+1.5) BUY Samuel 67¢ $101 22h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 45¢ $51 22h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 55¢ $101 22h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 54¢ $102 23h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 57¢ $101 24h
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5) BUY Tauson 67¢ $101 25h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 45¢ $51 25h
Set Handicap: Henning (-1.5) vs Lee (+1.5) BUY Lee 56¢ $101 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $767.06 · official $767.08 (match) · 1251 history records