Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52a0…1c75 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
other 25% −$1
politics 17% $0
sports 9% $0
economics 7% $0
crypto 5% −$3
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 63 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 0% -9.5%
all 78 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage340d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $88 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $31 −$1 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $32 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $61 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $26 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $30 +$2 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $23 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $30 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $3 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $22 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $23 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $47 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $73 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $76 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $30 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $24 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $6 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $21 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $20 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $18 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $31 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $7 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 321 history records