Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
52 0x52a1…5efa crypto 117 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,527 (+25%) realized +$4,527 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%64W / 53L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day119.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$422
30 days+$3,779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,779
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +18.0% +6.8% 54% 38% -7.9%
≤30d 117 +16.9% +5.8% 55% 45% +9.8%
≤90d 117 +16.9% +5.8% 55% 45% +9.8%
all 117 +16.9% +5.8% 55% 45% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.8% 45% +9.8%
10% ← realistic here -4.3% 38% -0.7%
15% -13.6% 32% -10.3%
20% -22.0% 26% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
22.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$43 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,527
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses64 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage22d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day119.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $90 +$18 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $70 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $69 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $122 +$100 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $149 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $123 −$62 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $58 −$13 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $224 −$32 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$29 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $186 +$32 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $177 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 09 $74 +$23 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $190 −$36 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $164 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $241 −$26 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $144 +$39 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $96 +$30 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $156 +$36 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 07 $42 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $194 +$106 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $66 +$181 +273%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $89 +$37 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 07 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 07 $231 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $135 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 06 $198 +$73 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 06 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 06 $119 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 06 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 06 $120 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $43 +$24 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 02 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 30 $155 +$69 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 30 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 30 $4 +$11 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 29 $17 +$29 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 29 $87 −$30 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 29 $162 +$38 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 29 $86 +$163 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 29 $216 +$22 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2730 history records