Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
52 0x52a5…dd82 politics 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,370 (+1%) realized +$1,369 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,603per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$162
30 days+$451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$806
politics 42% −$127
sports 11% +$695
world 2% −$20
culture 2% −$5
crypto 1% −$31
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 43 -6.7% -15.6% 9% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 110 -3.3% -12.5% 10% 7% -9.2%
all 156 +3.1% -6.7% 17% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 15% -9.0%
10% -15.6% 15% -17.8%
15% -23.8% 12% -25.7%
20% -31.2% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,323) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$12 · ×8.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$1,369
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,603
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $246 $247 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $951 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,194 −$3 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,559 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,773 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,473 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,044 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $3,670 −$4 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $4,144 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,558 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $975 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $236 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,920 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $5,497 −$6 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,790 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $8,052 −$9 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,718 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,920 −$5 -0%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 25 $79 −$79 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $52 +$73 +140%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,305 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $2,283 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,681 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,028 −$2 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 20 $1,054 +$795 +75%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $5,227 −$7 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,756 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $5,368 −$6 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $5,609 −$6 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $4,269 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $237 1h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $237 2h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 43h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,026 44h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $950 45h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $951 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $798 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $799 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,207 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,209 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,167 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,169 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $855 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $856 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,235 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,237 8d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $62 8d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $185 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,084 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,086 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,019 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,428 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,429 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.09 · official $247.09 (match) · 556 history records