Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52a7…1bb1 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$2
world 26% +$14
politics 11% −$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 4% +$4
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -2.6% -11.8% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 6 +10.9% +0.3% 33% 17% -2.9%
all 37 +5.5% -4.6% 43% 8% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 8% -5.8%
10% -13.7% 8% -14.9%
15% -22.1% 8% -23.1%
20% -29.7% 8% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage472d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $15 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $21 +$16 +73%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $41 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $16 $0 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $15 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23? May 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will the General Liberation and Development Party win the most seats i May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 19 $17 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 18 $3 +$4 +151%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 17 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 16 $7 $0 -4%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $7 +$3 +52%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 26 $11 $0 -3%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 23 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 22 $7 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 17 $10 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $1 $0 -30%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 19? Mar 19 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $13 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $49 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $9 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $40 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $49 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $37 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $53 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $53 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $26 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $12 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $38 30h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 27d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $15 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $8 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $14 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.16 · official $48.24 · 154 history records