Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52ad…111c sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%106W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$9,696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$24
14 days+$28
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% +$23
sports 18% +$7
other 5% +$2
tech 4% +$2
crypto 4% +$1
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 107 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 107 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 107 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×90.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9569.32 per $1 lost it wins $9569.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$9,696
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses106 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)107 / 119
History coverage17d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $997 $1,000 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $999 $1,000 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $754 $754 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $749 $749 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $195 $195 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $589 +$1 +0%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $774 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $988 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $814 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $275 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $259 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Tomljanovic Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $138 48m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $121 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $197 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $300 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $978 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $97 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $24 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $333 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $70 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $994 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $80 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $135 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,696.38 · official $9,696.38 (match) · 335 history records