Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52ae…8756 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$57 (+6%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day85.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -17.3% -25.2% 39% 39% -18.9%
≤30d 36 -17.3% -25.2% 39% 39% -18.9%
≤90d 36 -17.3% -25.2% 39% 39% -18.9%
all 36 -17.3% -25.2% 39% 39% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 39% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 28% -26.7%
15% -38.9% 25% -33.7%
20% -44.9% 3% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$16 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day85.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $79 −$47 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$35 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$23 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$15 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$17 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$116 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records