Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52af…caa7 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$183 (+16%) realized +$214 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$104
14 days−$104
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$136
world 26% +$447
sports 13% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.0% -43.0% 0% 0% -41.0%
≤30d 5 -37.0% -43.0% 0% 0% -41.0%
≤90d 6 -20.7% -28.3% 17% 17% -19.4%
all 9 +18.1% +6.8% 22% 22% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 22% +13.8%
10% -3.4% 22% +2.9%
15% -12.7% 22% -7.1%
20% -21.3% 22% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$274 vs −$51 · ×5.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized+$214
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage158d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $33 $50 +$17 (+50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $100 −$24 -24%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $50 −$8 -17%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $50 −$13 -25%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 −$26 -52%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 −$34 -68%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $100 +$61 +61%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $100 +$487 +487%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $34 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $76 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $42 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $37 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $24 24h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 24h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 65d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 65d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 65d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 65d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 65d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 65d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 65d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 65d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $161 83d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 103d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $150 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $587 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 142d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.86 · official $351.86 (match) · 90 history records