Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52b0…786c world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$2
other 8% −$3
politics 8% $0
finance 7% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
tech 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -1.0% -10.5% 23% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -8.1% -16.9% 21% 0% -10.5%
all 29 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage480d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 −$2 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $39 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jun 25 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $1 $0 -15%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +19%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? May 07 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 21 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $37 51m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $37 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $27 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $11 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $26 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $37 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $34 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $34 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $17 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $17 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $31 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $24 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $26 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records