Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52b7…0aa1 sports 467 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,886 (-4%) realized −$8,621 · open −$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%140W / 509L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day141.9pace
Fees−$4,635est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$12,993
other 1% +$285
crypto 0% −$368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 366 -69.4% -72.3% 10% 10% -75.7%
≤30d 649 -36.1% -42.2% 22% 22% -45.3%
≤90d 649 -36.1% -42.2% 22% 22% -45.3%
all 649 -36.1% -42.2% 22% 22% -45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.2% 22% -45.3%
10% -47.7% 21% -50.6%
15% ← realistic here -52.8% 21% -55.3%
20% -57.4% 21% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$731) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$922 vs −$507 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$3,472
Realized−$8,621
Unrealized−$265
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses140 / 509
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$4,635
Open positions7
Markets (closed)649 / 467
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$492
Trades / day141.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 649 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $865 $987 +$123 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 44¢ 50¢ $594 $668 +$74 (+12%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 30¢ 30¢ $600 $600 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $594 $573 −$22 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs ECHO 32¢ 34¢ $497 $536 +$39 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 35¢ 36¢ $92 $96 +$4 (+4%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 33¢ 1¢ $495 $12 −$483 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Global Esports (BO3) - Esports World C Jun 20 $661 −$661 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 20 $721 −$721 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - BC Game Maste Jun 20 $702 −$702 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Walczaki (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 20 $128 −$128 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play Jun 20 $806 −$806 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge Jun 20 $790 −$790 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 20 $735 −$735 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Gamebox Festival Playoffs Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 20 $726 −$726 -100%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs Zena Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Jun 20 $843 −$843 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 20 $275 −$275 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $165 −$165 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $188 −$188 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo Jun 20 $697 −$697 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $570 −$570 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 20 $715 −$715 -100%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Ser Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se Jun 20 $113 −$113 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $180 −$180 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Jun 20 $715 −$715 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 20 $786 −$786 -100%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Jun 20 $355 −$355 -100%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ameri Jun 20 $817 −$817 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 20 $735 −$735 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 20 $850 −$850 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $852 −$852 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 20 $874 −$874 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs Jun 20 $763 −$763 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 20 $657 −$657 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo Jun 20 $714 −$714 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $188 −$188 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 20 $483 −$483 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs Jun 20 $793 −$793 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Alliance (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fina Jun 20 $687 −$687 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gro Jun 20 $704 −$704 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 20 $535 −$535 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun Jun 20 $656 −$656 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $600 −$600 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $577 −$577 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CIS LAN Champ Jun 20 $357 −$357 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Jun 20 $198 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Chinggis Warriors (BO3) - Asian Champions Jun 20 $722 −$722 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) Jun 20 $720 −$720 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 20 $842 −$842 -100%
Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs Ground Zero (BO3) - Asian Champio Jun 20 $846 −$846 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 20 $700 −$700 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 33¢ $41 37m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 33¢ $42 38m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 33¢ $116 39m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 33¢ $302 40m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $22 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $600 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $39 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $13 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 35¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 44¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $429 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,471.92 · official $3,472.08 (match) · 3500 history records