Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52bd…c526 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-8%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$6
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.3% -1.1% 62% 38% +1.0%
≤30d 20 -14.6% -22.7% 60% 45% -8.8%
≤90d 20 -14.6% -22.7% 60% 45% -8.8%
all 20 -14.6% -22.7% 60% 45% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 45% -8.8%
10% -30.1% 25% -17.5%
15% -36.9% 10% -25.5%
20% -43.1% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage10d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$34 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $70 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $67 −$53 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $71 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $56 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $46 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $45 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $45 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $37 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $29 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records