Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52be…858a other 16 markets active 4d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$16 (-63%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$15
sports 16% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-52.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -67.3% -70.4% 14% 14% -70.0%
≤30d 16 -47.7% -52.7% 25% 25% -69.2%
≤90d 16 -47.7% -52.7% 25% 25% -69.2%
all 16 -47.7% -52.7% 25% 25% -69.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.7% 25% -69.2%
10% -57.2% 25% -72.1%
15% -61.3% 19% -74.8%
20% -65.1% 19% -77.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +187%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 13d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 13d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 14d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records