Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52be…e97b crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$208 (+0%) realized +$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%131W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$498per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$12
14 days+$29
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$172
other 1% +$13
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.6% -18.2% 89% 11% -9.3%
≤30d 38 -2.1% -11.4% 97% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 107 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 2% -9.3%
all 137 -2.3% -11.6% 96% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 1% -9.3%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$843) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×14.91 per $1 lost it wins $14.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$833
Realized+$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses131 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage114d
Avg bet$498
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $833 $833 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $831 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $828 +$1 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $829 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $825 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $822 +$3 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $823 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $820 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $817 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $813 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $813 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $806 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $804 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,203 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,202 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1,201 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,513 +$2 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,005 +$4 +0%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$4 +1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $242 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $1,246 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,242 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $1,038 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $1,032 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $1,032 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 25 $1,029 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $1,028 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 23 $1,026 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $1,025 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $1,024 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $1,022 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $1,020 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $1,014 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,014 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,012 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 14 $1,010 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $1,007 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 12? May 12 $1,006 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $895 +$3 +0%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 10 $93 +$15 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? May 10 $892 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $892 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $833 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $831 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 89¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $828 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $829 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $825 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $822 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $823 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $820 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $817 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $813 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $813 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $806 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $804 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,203 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,202 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $1,201 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,200 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,513 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1,009 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $243 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $242 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,005 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,246 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,242 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 22d
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $300 22d
Netanyahu out by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $200 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $832.58 · official $832.58 (match) · 288 history records