Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x52be…801e
sports · 352 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,608 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,999 · open −$80
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$164
Realized−$2,999
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses159 / 191
Est. fees paid−$467
Open positions2
Markets (closed)350 / 352
History coverage8d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day74.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 350 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$721
7 days−$3,475
14 days−$2,999
30 days−$2,999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 28¢ 26¢ $180 $164 −$16 (-9%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 70¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-99%)
Set 1 Winner: Landaluce vs Fritz Fritz 65¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 26¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs Pliskova Mboko 66¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Arthur Rinderknech 36¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Priscilla Hon 38¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Dallas Wings 55¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 53¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Adam Walton 30¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Emma Navarro 31¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmoh Michael Mmoh 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Alan Magadan 83¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 35¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 70¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Tallon Griekspoor 40¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Seattle Storm 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner PARIVISION 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Elena Rybakina 58¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $114 +$71 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$46 +236%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $71 −$52 -73%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $107 +$87 +82%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $203 −$92 -45%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $152 −$46 -30%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $110 −$108 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $111 −$97 -87%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$148 +146%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$88 +172%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $122 +$83 +68%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $150 +$91 +61%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $101 +$82 +81%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $156 +$194 +125%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $103 +$39 +38%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$50 -33%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 13 $101 −$4 -4%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $102 +$131 +129%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$42 +41%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Minaur Jun 13 $101 +$87 +86%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $122 −$115 -94%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $153 +$204 +134%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $254 −$220 -87%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $101 −$43 -43%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $101 +$53 +53%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $87 +$32 +37%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $224 −$90 -40%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Shevchenko vs Sachko Jun 13 $101 +$67 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $86 +$102 +118%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $84 +$104 +123%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $203 +$189 +93%
Set 1 Winner: Krejcikova vs Linette Jun 13 $106 +$64 +60%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 13 $102 +$127 +125%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$50 +50%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $84 −$83 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 92% −$2,604
crypto 6% −$493
other 3% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 28¢ $184 17m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 89¢ $185 17m
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 70¢ $65 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $19 39m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 11¢ $19 40m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $21 47m
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Los Angeles Sparks 71¢ $21 48m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $71 55m
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Los Angeles Sparks 80¢ $71 56m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $92 59m
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 93¢ $92 59m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $102 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 95¢ $102 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 45¢ $55 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $55 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. BUY No 35¢ $51 2h
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 SELL Yes 40¢ $106 2h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $107 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 52¢ $107 2h
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire BUY Dallas Wings 55¢ $110 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 8¢ $13 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 22¢ $1 3h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $102 3h
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $152 3h
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $102 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 65¢ $111 3h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $102 3h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 70¢ $101 9h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 40¢ $102 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 -17.9% -25.7% 43% 42% -20.1%
≤30d 350 -14.4% -22.6% 45% 44% -17.4%
≤90d 350 -14.4% -22.6% 45% 44% -17.4%
all 350 -14.4% -22.6% 45% 44% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 44% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 44% -25.3%
15% -36.7% 41% -32.5%
20% -42.9% 33% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.32 · official $164.32 (match) · 713 history records