Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52bf…3e9f sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$33 (-6%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$130
sports 28% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.1% +2.3% 50% 50% -10.8%
≤30d 8 +13.1% +2.3% 50% 50% -10.8%
≤90d 8 +13.1% +2.3% 50% 50% -10.8%
all 8 +13.1% +2.3% 50% 50% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 50% -10.8%
10% -7.5% 38% -19.3%
15% -16.4% 38% -27.1%
20% -24.6% 38% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$40 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$61 +121%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$41 -41%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $187 −$86 -46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $80 +$17 +21%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $64 +$37 +58%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$38 +132%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$20 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 38m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $59 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $31 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $68 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $69 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $119 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $64 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $29 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $29 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records