Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52c1…d61f sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,467 (+5%) realized +$1,478 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%65W / 40L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$601now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$460
14 days+$453
30 days+$1,413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$613
other 9% +$538
crypto 7% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +24.3% +12.5% 76% 71% +0.9%
≤30d 45 +5.7% -4.4% 71% 53% -1.6%
≤90d 105 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 47% -5.4%
all 105 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 47% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 47% -5.4%
10% -17.4% 32% -14.5%
15% -25.3% 23% -22.7%
20% -32.7% 21% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$73 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$601
Realized+$1,478
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses65 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage68d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $612 $601 −$11 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $58 +$60 +104%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $516 +$43 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $153 +$364 +237%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $92 +$59 +64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $555 −$555 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $372 +$80 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $415 +$65 +16%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $61 +$33 +55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$37 +122%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $414 +$46 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $252 +$88 +35%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $527 +$144 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $371 +$83 +22%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $40 +$37 +91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 07 $11 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $9 +$2 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $7 +$2 +29%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $424 −$418 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $72 −$72 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $298 +$341 +114%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $486 −$185 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +76%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $317 +$173 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 22 $304 +$12 +4%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $189 +$65 +35%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $253 +$70 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 20 $316 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 20 $328 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 20 $302 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 20 $380 +$4 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $533 +$29 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 19 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 19 $2 +$2 +93%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $386 +$54 +14%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $2,760 +$471 +17%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $2,424 +$150 +6%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $2,173 +$258 +12%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $339 +$222 +66%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $46 −$35 -77%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $9 +$17 +188%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $19 +$10 +54%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $73 −$19 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $616 30m
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 100¢ $118 5h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 48¢ $58 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $559 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $516 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $517 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $150 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $92 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 1¢ $0 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 88¢ $555 23h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 82¢ $372 29h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $480 39h
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $415 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 43h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $68 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $340 3d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $414 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 78¢ $527 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 88¢ $454 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $77 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 71¢ $371 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.97 · official $593.41 · 345 history records