Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x52c7…e564 other 142 markets active 3h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,085 (-1%) realized −$1,085 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%29W / 112L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$697per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$15
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$171
politics 30% −$56
sports 12% −$887
world 5% +$22
economics 4% −$1
culture 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 0% -11.3%
all 141 -1.8% -11.2% 21% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -10.5%
10% -19.7% 9% -19.1%
15% -27.4% 9% -26.9%
20% -34.6% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,023) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$17 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$539
Realized−$1,085
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses29 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage155d
Avg bet$697
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $539 $539 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,426 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,223 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,473 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $241 +$1 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $365 +$1 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $619 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $793 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $858 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $804 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $572 +$1 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $359 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,262 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $116 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 10 $1,249 −$1,249 -100%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $2,291 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $2,000 −$2 -0%
Will Byeong Hun An win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 25 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $1,023 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $2,122 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $453 3h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $453 4h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $539 9h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $852 2d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $854 3d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $690 3d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $691 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $759 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $760 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $759 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $760 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $842 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $843 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $910 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $801 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $802 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $917 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $918 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $819 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $820 11d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $811 11d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $812 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $884 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $886 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $800 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $801 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $991 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $993 15d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $936 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.11 · official $539.11 (match) · 428 history records