Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52c8…9b69 crypto 1103 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,574 (-21%) realized −$5,287 · open −$287
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%430W / 943L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,093
7 days−$4,318
14 days−$3,794
30 days−$3,794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$581
other 29% −$775
sports 26% +$895
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 328 -92.1% -92.8% 5% 5% -36.6%
≤30d 331 -91.0% -91.9% 5% 5% -32.2%
≤90d 1373 -26.7% -33.6% 31% 28% -24.2%
all 1373 -26.7% -33.6% 31% 28% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.6% 28% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -40.0% 25% -31.4%
15% -45.8% 22% -38.1%
20% -51.1% 18% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1,178
Realized−$5,287
Unrealized−$287
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses430 / 943
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1373 / 1103
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $274 $350 +$76 (+28%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 84¢ $293 $266 −$27 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $211 $241 +$31 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $142 $115 −$27 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $142 $105 −$37 (-26%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $47 $25 −$21 (-46%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 71¢ 3¢ $133 $5 −$128 (-96%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -465%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $48 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $40 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $19 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $78 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $266 4h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 71¢ $135 9h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $48 9h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 9h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 9h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $42 9h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $144 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 36¢ $171 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $131 21h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 26h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 26h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 19¢ $4 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,178.25 · official $1,178.25 (match) · 3500 history records