Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52c8…5e5e crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%19W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$568per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$14
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$7
other 38% +$15
tech 9% +$2
sports 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 19 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$860) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses19 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage97d
Avg bet$568
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $205 $205 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $866 +$10 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $864 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $862 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $861 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? Jun 01 $860 +$1 +0%
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 20 $834 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 13? May 14 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on May 13? May 14 $681 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $857 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? Apr 15 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 14? Apr 15 $266 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 14? Apr 15 $392 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $855 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on April 8? Apr 09 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on April 8? Apr 09 $737 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? Apr 05 $853 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $9.00 end of March? Mar 31 $190 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $10 end of March? Mar 31 $660 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $205 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $866 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $864 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $862 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $861 20d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $7.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $860 35d
Will "Lord of the Flies" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $25 42d
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $834 42d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $681 49d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $178 49d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $857 62d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $392 77d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $266 77d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $198 77d
Thunder vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $855 79d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $117 84d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $5 84d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $732 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $853 88d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $9.00 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $190 97d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $10 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $660 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.90 · official $204.90 (match) · 40 history records