Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x52ca…1d63 other 413 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$12,299 (+2%) realized +$12,301 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%269W / 142L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$1,725per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$592
7 days+$894
14 days+$554
30 days+$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$31,172
sports 31% −$22,482
crypto 7% +$1,561
world 4% +$1,767
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.4% -10.8% 69% 62% -1.9%
≤30d 49 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 55% -8.0%
≤90d 79 -19.1% -26.8% 53% 51% -45.8%
all 411 -2.0% -11.3% 65% 50% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 50% -8.0%
10% -19.8% 32% -16.8%
15% -27.5% 23% -24.8%
20% -34.6% 15% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$550) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$269 vs −$425 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$12,301
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses269 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)411 / 413
History coverage250d
Avg bet$1,725
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 85¢ 84¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $402 +$101 +25%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 −$6 -63%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,396 +$316 +23%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $50 +$15 +29%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $101 +$46 +45%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +77%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,005 +$196 +20%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,510 +$239 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $502 −$195 -39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$44 -87%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,003 +$29 +3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $111 +$66 +60%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $151 −$151 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $501 +$54 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,672 +$78 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,500 +$176 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$94 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $46 +$44 +97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $54 +$24 +45%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $100 +$15 +15%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$34 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$44 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $600 −$122 -20%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $294 −$154 -52%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 29 $302 +$88 +29%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $61 +$35 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $100 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 22¢ $4 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,712 2h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) SELL Senegal 96¢ $65 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $201 2h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $147 3h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 74¢ $50 4h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,396 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 64¢ $20 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $10 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,201 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 78¢ $101 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,510 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 48¢ $135 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 59¢ $173 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 86¢ $502 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 8¢ $7 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,032 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.24 · official $98.24 (match) · 1207 history records