Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52d2…c6e0 crypto 216 markets active 17h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%119W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$341
14 days−$234
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$356
other 1% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 +0.8% -8.8% 52% 44% -12.6%
≤30d 216 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 46% -11.7%
≤90d 216 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 46% -11.7%
all 216 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 46% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 46% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 42% -20.1%
15% -24.9% 35% -27.9%
20% -32.2% 31% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$35 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses119 / 97
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage19d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$13 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$66 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $88 −$46 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$73 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$50 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$62 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$50 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$28 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$27 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $71 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$22 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $119 −$81 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$31 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$13 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $14 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $28 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $38 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $66 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $7 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $48 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $19 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $23 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 678 history records